转变叙利亚

阿拉伯和以色列之间的和平需要一种综合的方式来达成,因为许多重大问题都是相互交织的。没有一种整个阿拉伯世界的共识,不但诸如耶路撒冷和巴勒斯坦难民这样的关键性问题解决不了,而且任何一个被排除在和平进程之外的国家都肯定会坚持扮演革命力量的角色,继续制造地区性的不稳定。

众所周知,以色列政府从来不喜欢同时与所有敌人进行和平谈判的想法,因为难以承受所需妥协的政治成本。因此以色列实现和平的战略总是在两种愿景之间振荡:左派将巴勒斯坦为题视为当务之急,而右翼则倾向于寻求与阿拉伯大国之间的协议。

目前的以巴和谈及美国拒绝与叙利亚进行谈判表明我们又重新回到了“巴勒斯坦为先”的理念上。但成功的机会却是微乎其微。由于美国人仍然不愿进行克林顿式的倾力斡旋,所以各方看起来都不能满足彼此达成协议的最低要求。

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