Сдерживание, а не умиротворение

Америка и весь мир внимательно следят за тем, примет ли администрация Буша рекомендации «Группы по изучению Ирака» по стратегии вывода войск из этой страны. Это самый насущный вопрос, но руководство Америки должно думать также и о будущем. Америке нужна пост-оккупационная стратегия для Ирака и Ближнего Востока, основанная на жизнеспособной стратегии национальной безопасности для двадцать первого столетия. Такой стратегией является сдерживание.

В преддверии вторжения в Ирак администрация Буша отвергала сдерживание как устаревший реликт времен холодной войны. Инспектора по вооружениям были отозваны, и Америка выбрала войну. Буша изображали как человека, с решимостью Черчилля бросившего вызов новому Гитлеру, а сторонников сдерживания обвиняли в умиротворении. Но сейчас мы знаем, что режим сдерживания действовал. Ирак при Саддаме Хусейне не имел возможности угрожать никому, тем более Соединенным Штатам.

Это не первый случай, когда сдерживание – стратегия, разработанная Джорджем Кеннаном, директором Отдела политического планирования Госдепартамента США при президенте Гарри Трумэне, в ответ на советскую угрозу после Второй мировой войны – была отвергнута как умиротворение. Во время избирательной кампании 1952 года Дуайт Эйзенхауэр и его будущий госсекретарь, Джон Фостер Даллес, подвергли политику сдерживания резкой критике, призывая вместо этого к «отповеди» Советам в Восточной Европе.

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