遏制,而不是纵容

美国和世界都在关注布什政府是否会按照伊拉克问题研究小组(Iraq Study Group)所建议的策略从伊拉克撤军。这是目前最迫切需要解决的问题,但美国领导人还需要预先考虑未来。美国需要为伊拉克和中东地区制定后占领期策略,而这项策略必须以21世纪切实可行的国家安全政策为基础,那就是遏制。

入侵伊拉克之前,布什政府把遏制看作过时的冷战后遗症而不予理睬。武器核查人员被迫撤离,美国选择了先发制人地挑起战争。布什被描绘为以邱吉尔般的坚定意志与新的希特勒对抗,而遏制政策的宣传者则被斥责为姑息和纵容。可现在我们知道遏制策略是有效的。萨达姆·侯赛因统治下的伊拉克不会威胁到任何人,更不用说是美国了。

在哈利·杜鲁门(Harry Truman)任总统时担任美国国务院政策计划室(US State Department’s Policy Planning Staff)主任的乔治·凯南(George Kennan)最先提出了遏制策略,当时提出这项策略是为了应对二战结束后苏联所构成的威胁。乔治·凯南所提出的遏制策略已经不是第一次被人斥责为姑息纵容了。在1952年的总统竞选中,德怀特·艾森豪威尔(Dwight Eisenhower)和他未来的国务卿约翰·福斯特·杜勒斯(John Foster Dulles)就曾对遏制策略嗤之以鼻,并号召要在东欧地区将苏联“彻底打垮”。

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