欧洲的俄罗斯

索非亚-欧洲的冷战后秩序结束了,弗拉基米尔·普京是其终结者。俄罗斯对格鲁吉亚的入侵只是标志着它的消逝。俄罗斯已经从这场战争中以重生的,决定要挑战冷战后欧洲秩序的学术基础、道德以及制度基础的19世纪强国的姿态出现了。

 现在,俄罗斯和欧盟在欧亚大陆不稳定的根源的问题上,观点尖锐对立。如果西方坚持忽略俄罗斯的担忧并继续将北约扩大到前苏联领土上,只会再次在欧亚大陆上引入势力范围的政治观点。但是,破坏20世纪90年代的政策也带来了严重的风险,因为欧盟不是,也不可能成为一个传统意义上的超级大国,因为西方的软弱可能最终有利于——并且鼓励——俄罗斯的复仇主义。

对欧盟对俄罗斯政策的任何重新思考都应该认识到,虽然俄罗斯会在接下来的十年里继续是一个区域性大国,也是一个全球参与者,但是,它不可能成为一个自由民主国家。欧盟也应该认识到,俄罗斯对冷战结束对其安全的不对称冲击具有合理的担忧。俄罗斯曾经期望冷战的结束意味着中欧和东欧的非军事化,可是事实并非如此,它感觉遭到了背叛。虽然北约的扩张并不意味着对俄罗斯任何真正的安全威胁,但是,它改变了俄罗斯和西方之间的军事平衡,助长了克里姆林宫的修正主义思想。

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