抑制金融混乱

在那些从美国住房市场泡沫破裂后就一直在预警世界经济风险的人们看来,今天发生的持续性金融市场混乱丝毫不值得大惊小怪。今年1月,美国对全球经济的展望就引发了可能给债台高筑的美国住宅市场带来经济阵痛的忧虑。它还明确了管理疲弱、联系紧密的全球金融市场和长久以来的全球宏观经济失衡如何影响到包括贫困国家在内的世界经济的发展前景。

美国的经常项目赤字是人们议论最多的一项全球经济失衡指标。过去5年来,随着史无前例的宽松的国内信贷政策允许家庭以超过自己收入的尺度进行开支,美国每一天吸收其它国家存款的金额都要超过20亿美元。资产(住宅和股票)价格的一路扬升和利率的一路走低更增加了这种借贷方式的魅力,使得继任的金融市场改革者能够说服投资者风险已经在他们的掌控之中。因此,就连抵押品估值过高的二次借贷也被作为未来美好前景的标志而大肆宣传。

特别是当美国消费者的大肆挥霍推动全球经济强劲增长之时,人们对市场非理性繁荣的警告大都充耳不闻。日本和欧洲的强劲出口支持经济恢复增长、也稳定了投资者的心态,进而又为新兴的工业化国家,特别是中国,提供了进一步的出口机遇。

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