Fairy wings train tracks slump ChrisHaysPhotography/Flickr

El hada de la confianza al centro del debate

LONDRES – En 2011, el economista y Premio Nobel Paul Krugman caracterizó el discurso conservador sobre los déficits presupuestarios en términos de "vigilantes de bonos" y el "hada de la confianza". A menos que los gobiernos recortasen sus déficits, los vigilantes de bonos les apretarían los tornillos forzando un alza de las tasas de interés. Pero si efectivamente hacían un recorte, el hada de la confianza los recompensaría estimulando el gasto privado más de lo que los recortes lo deprimieran.

Krugman pensaba que el argumento del "vigilante de bonos" podría ser válido para algunos países, como Grecia, pero sostenía que el "hada de la confianza" no era menos imaginaria que la que recoge los dientes de los niños. Recortar un déficit en un período de recesión nunca puede generar una recuperación. La retórica política puede impedir que se adopte una buena política, pero no puede impedir que tenga éxito. Por sobre todas las cosas, no puede hacer que una mala política funcione.

Recientemente debatí este punto con Krugman en un evento del New York Review of Books. Mi argumento fue que las expectativas adversas pueden afectar los resultados de una política, no sólo las posibilidades de que se adopte. Por ejemplo, si la gente creyera que el endeudamiento del gobierno tiene que ver simplemente con una tributación diferida, entonces podría ahorrar más para poder pagar su próxima factura de impuestos.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/A46JYNT/es;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now