Controlar la enorme deuda de Europa

BERLÍN – El costo neto de la ayuda, inducida por la crisis, que ofreció el G-20 en 2009 al sector financiero ascendió a 1.7% del PIB (905.000 millones de dólares), según estima el Fondo Monetario Internacional, mientras que el estímulo fiscal discrecional alcanzó el 2% del PIB en 2009 y 2010. Todos los países de la eurozona, salvo Luxemburgo y Finlandia, tuvieron déficits fiscales superiores al 3% del GDP en 2009, mientras que los de Grecia, España e Irlanda rebasaron el 10%. Tan solo en un año, la deuda general de los gobiernos de la eurozona aumentó en casi 10 puntos porcentuales (78.7% del PIB en 2009 comparado con el 69.3% en 2008).

Con relación a Alemania, el presupuesto federal de 2010 tiene un elevado déficit sin precedentes que rebasa los 50.000 millones de euros. La deuda del sector privado superará los 1.7 billones de euros, muy cerca del 80% del PIB. Los pagos de intereses, que consumen más del 10% del presupuesto federal de Alemania, crecerán a la par que la carga de la deuda –e incluso más rápido si suben las tasas de interés.

Sin embargo, la crisis financiera y la recesión que le siguió son las que por el momento explican estos altos niveles de endeudamiento. La verdad es que muchos países europeos y del G-20 han estado viviendo más allá de sus posibilidades –incluida Alemania, a pesar de su reputación como parangón de rectitud fiscal.

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