Suena la sirena económica egipcia

NEWPORT BEACH – Frente a una turbulenta situación política y reiteradas protestas en las calles, la elite política egipcia debiera considerar seriamente, tanto desde el gobierno como desde la oposición, enfocarse en las implicaciones económicas de la agitación actual. Eso la llevaría a reconocer siete motivos de peso por los cuales un enfoque más colaborativo para solucionar los problemas de Egipto es beneficioso tanto para los intereses colectivos del país como para los suyos.

En primer lugar, de persistir el desorden social y político, la economía egipcia terminará con una agobiante inflación, severos problemas en su balance de pagos y una crisis presupuestaria. Aumentará bruscamente el riesgo de una salvaje espiral descendente con tendencia a autopotenciarse.

Pero en vez de colapsar (al estilo de las economías asiáticas y latinoamericanas durante las crisis de la deuda de antaño), la economía egipcia se arriesga a retomar sofocantes controles y volver al mercado negro. La eficiencia económica, la inversión y el empleo sufrirían significativamente, al tiempo que un menor crecimiento económico se vería acompañado por mayores precios, incluso para los alimentos básicos.

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