埃及的经济警报

发自纽波特滩——面对政治局面动荡和街头抗议频发,埃及的政治精英们(不管是执政还是在野党)的稳妥做法应是关注当前动荡的经济含义。这么做会让他们明白为什么采用一个更具协作性的方法来解决国内的问题能更符合整个国家的集体利益,同时也符合他们自身的个体利益,对此令人信服的理由有以下七条:

首先,如果社会动荡与政治骚乱持续,埃及经济将会以严重的通货膨胀、国际收支问题和预算危机告终。而催生一个自我强化的恶性堕落循环的风险将急剧上升。

然而,与其说埃及经济会崩溃(上次债务危机期间亚洲和拉丁美洲国家就是如此),它更可能会冒险回到令人窒息的管制和黑市交易。经济效率、投资和就业将会受到严重冲击,然而伴随更缓慢增长的则是更高的商品——包括基本口粮——的价格。

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