Roller coaster and sunset.

Fluktuasi Harga Komoditas

CAMBRIDGE – Terjadinya commodity super-cycle secara global bukanlah fenomena baru. Meskipun beberapa rinciannya berbeda, eksportir komoditas primer cenderung memerankan kisah yang sama, dan dampak ekonomi lebih condong mengikuti pola yang familiar. Tetapi unsur kemampuan prediksi (predictability) dalam siklus harga komoditas, ibarat jalur roller coaster, ternyata tidak membuat lika-liku dalam wahana ini lebih mudah dilalui.

Sejak akhir abad ke-18, sudah ada tujuh atau delapan booming harga komoditas non-minyak, dibandingkan dengan harga barang manufaktur. (Jumlah tepatnya tergantung pada besaran puncak (peaks) dan lembah (troughs). Booming biasanya berlangsung 7-8 tahun, meskipun salah satu kejadian booming yang bermula di tahun 1933 berlangsung selama hampir dua dekade. Pengecualian tersebut terjadi karena pertama Perang Dunia I dan kemudian rekonstruksi pasca-perang di Eropa dan Jepang, serta pertumbuhan ekonomi yang pesat di Amerika Serikat. Booming yang terbaru, diawali pada tahun 2004 dan berakhir pada tahun 2011, cenderung sesuai dengan pola yang biasa.

Rendahnya harga komoditas – dengan penurunan peak-to-trough lebih dari 30% – berlangsung selama durasi yang sama, rata-rata sekitar tujuh tahun. Kini kegagalan tersebut memasuki tahun keempatnya dan harga komoditas non-minyak (dibandingkan harga ekspor barang manufaktur) telah merosot sekitar 25%.

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