Roller coaster and sunset.

Komodity na horské dráze

CAMBRIDGE – Globální komoditní supercyklus není nový jev. Detaily se sice liší, ale vývozci primárních komodit zpravidla sehrávají tutéž úlohu a ekonomické výsledky se obvykle drží znatelných vzorců. Ani díky jistému prvku předvídatelnosti v průběhu cyklu komoditních cen, podobně jako na trase horské dráhy, však není snazší prudké zvraty snést bez nevolnosti.

Od konce osmnáctého století se objevilo sedm či osm výrazných vzestupů cen neropných komodit oproti ceně průmyslového zboží. (Přesný počet záleží na tom, jak se definují vrcholy a sedla.) Vzestupy obvykle trvaly 7-8 let, třebaže boom, který začal v roce 1933, překlenul téměř dvě dekády. Tato výjimka vycházela nejprve z druhé světové války a poté z poválečné rekonstrukce Evropy a Japonska, jakož i ze svižného hospodářského růstu ve Spojených státech. Poslední boom, který začal roku 2004 a skončil v roce 2011, odpovídá pravidlu lépe.

Propady komoditních cen – kdy poklesy od vrcholu po sedlo přesahují 30 % – mají podobné trvání, v průměru asi sedm let. Současný propad trvá už čtvrtý rok a ceny neropných komodit (v poměru k vývozním cenám průmyslového zboží) prozatím klesly asi o 25 %.

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