Roller coaster and sunset.

翻飞的商品云霄飞车

发自剑桥—— 全球大宗商品的超级周期并不是一个新现象。虽然细节各不相同,主要的大宗商品出口国都倾向于按照同样的剧本行事,而经济表现也往往遵循已知的模式。但在商品价格周期路径中的可预见性元素,就像坐云霄飞车的过程一样,上下翻飞急转急停,让人吃不消。

自十八世纪末以来,非石油商品相对于制成品的价格曾先后出现过七到八次的上涨(确切的数目取决于波峰和波谷的定义。)这类上涨一般持续7~8年,但始于1933年的那次延续了近二十年。这一例外是首先是得益于二战后欧洲和日本的重建以及美国经济的快速增长。而最近这场始于2004年终于2011年的上涨则更符合常规。

商品价格下跌——从波峰到波谷下跌超过30%——也会延续差不多长的时间,平均约七年。目前的下跌目前已进入第四个年头,非石油商品价格(相对于制成品出口价格)迄今已下跌了约25%。

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