大宗商品价格为何下跌?

美国剑桥—6月以来,石油价格暴跌40%——这对石油进口国来说是好消息,但对俄罗斯、委内瑞拉、尼日利亚和其他石油出口国来说是坏消息。一些人将油价下跌归因于美国页岩能源的爆发。也有人认为这是因为欧佩克没有就削减供给达成一致。

但这不是故事的全部。铁矿石价格也在下跌。金、银和铂价格也是如此。糖、棉花和大豆价格也在下跌。事实上,大部分大宗商品的美元价格今年上半年都下降了。尽管一些具体的部门因素影响着每种商品的价格,但价格下跌是如此广泛——剧烈波动时往往会发生这种情况——这一事实表明有宏观经济因素在起作用。

那么,是什么宏观经济因素促使大宗商品价格下跌?也许是通缩。但是,尽管通胀很低,甚至有的国家出现了负数,但这绝不是唯一原因,因为商品价格相对于总体价格水平也在下跌。换句话说,大宗商品的真实价格在下跌。

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