El peligroso éxito de Colombia

Los últimos meses han sido muy buenos para el Presidente colombiano Álvaro Uribe. Su política de "Seguridad democrática" hoy parece haber dado vuelta definitivamente el tablero en la lucha del país contra las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), ya que varios sus líderes han sido eliminados y una cantidad de rehenes que tenía en su poder han sido liberados. Uribe también ha demostrado ser un sólido administrador económico, atrayendo crecientes flujos de inversión directa a Colombia. Sin embargo, el éxito pone a Uribe ante una nueva serie de retos que arriesgan deshacer la mayor parte de lo que ha logrado.

El primer reto, y el más tangible, es que Uribe -con una popularidad de más del 90% tras el rescate de 15 rehenes de alto perfil, incluida la ex candidata presidencial Ingrid Betancourt, a principios de julio- estará expuesto a una mayor tentación de postularse a un tercer periodo. Esto no sería catastrófico per se, pero enmendar la constitución nuevamente para favorecer a uno de los actores socavaría la relativamente sólida institucionalización política del país, que es uno de los factores que han ayudado a atraer inversionistas extranjeros. Cambiar las reglas del juego para impulsar su poder personal contribuiría a perpetuar las debilidades, socavaría la obligación de las autoridades de hacerse responsables de sus actos ante el país, e impediría que importantes políticas de gobierno se conviertan en políticas de estado.

Sólo cabe esperar que Uribe haya aprendido las lecciones de los experimentos fallidos que se han intentado en la región para lograr terceros mandatos (vienen a la mente Alberto Fujimori en Perú y Carlos Menem en Argentina) y deje la presidencia con la frente muy en alto. Si lo hace, probablemente se lo recuerde como uno de los presidentes colombianos más influyentes y exitosos, y puede esperar hacer carrera como estadista regional e internacional.

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