Les succès périlleux de la Colombie

Ces derniers mois ont été profitables pour le président colombien Alvaro Uribe. Il semblerait que sa politique de « sécurité démocratique » ait définitivement renversé les rôles dans la lutte contre les Forces armées révolutionnaires de Colombie, dont les chefs ont été abattus et les otages libérés. Uribe a également prouvé qu’il était un administrateur économique digne de ce nom, attirant toujours plus d’investissements étrangers directs vers la Colombie. Pourtant, ces succès s’accompagnent de nouveaux problèmes risquant de réduire à néant la plupart des réalisations du président colombien.

Problème le plus probable : Uribe – avec des taux de popularité supérieurs à 90 % après la libération très médiatisée de 15 otages début juillet, dont Ingrid Betancourt, ex-candidate aux élections présidentielles – sera tenté de se présenter pour un troisième mandat. Ce ne sera pas une catastrophe en soi, néanmoins, modifier une fois de plus la constitution pour favoriser l’un des candidats risque de nuire à l’institutionnalisation politique relativement solide – l’un des facteurs qui a permis d’attirer des investisseurs étrangers. Changer les règles du jeu pour soutenir des règles personnelles risque d’aggraver certaines défaillances, notamment l’absence de transparence, et d’empêcher d’importantes politiques gouvernementales de s’ancrer au niveau public.

On ne peut qu’espérer qu’Uribe a tiré des leçons des expériences catastrophiques de troisièmes mandats dans cette partie du monde – celles d’Alberto Fujimori au Pérou et de Carlos Menem en Argentine me viennent à l’esprit – et quittera la présidence sur une note positive. Si c’est le cas, on se souviendra probablement de lui comme de l’un des présidents les plus brillants et influents, et il pourra poursuivre sa carrière d’homme d’État au niveau régional et international.

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