Pedro Molina

Colombia and the International Crisis

Since the middle of last year, the International Monetary Fund has been reducing its projections for growth across Latin America. While Colombia is relatively well positioned to weather the crisis, it – and Latin America as a whole – will most likely face even steeper declines if the Obama administration does not stabilize the US economy in the coming weeks.

BOGOTA – Just five months ago, Colombia’s government was assuring its citizens that they were protected from the international crisis. Now, analysts predict that the economy will barely grow 1% this year, and that is the best case scenario. This bleak forecast marks the end of Colombia’s longest cycle of growth in three decades, leaving the country in the same fragile situation as that of many other developing economies.

Of course, a deteriorating economy is not exclusive to Colombia. Since the middle of last year, the International Monetary Fund has been reducing its projections for growth across Latin America. Last October, the Fund estimated that growth in the region would reach 3.2% this year; now, it says that growth will barely be positive. And, most likely, the worst is yet to come: if the Obama administration does not succeed in stabilizing the United States economy in the coming weeks, Latin America will most likely face even steeper declines.

The good news for Colombia is that it is better off than many of its neighbors. Although projecting concrete figures is a sterile exercise in these worrisome times, most analysts predict that Colombia’s economic performance this year will be inferior to Peru’s, but similar to Chile’s and Brazil’s and better than that of Argentina, Venezuela, and Mexico, a country expected to contract by more than 2%.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in;
  1. Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images

    The Brexit Surrender

    European Union leaders meeting in Brussels have given the go-ahead to talks with Britain on post-Brexit trade relations. But, as European Council President Donald Tusk has said, the most difficult challenge – forging a workable deal that secures broad political support on both sides – still lies ahead.

  2. The Great US Tax Debate

    ROBERT J. BARRO vs. JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS on the impact of the GOP tax  overhaul.

    • Congressional Republicans are finalizing a tax-reform package that will reshape the business environment by lowering the corporate-tax rate and overhauling deductions. 

    • But will the plan's far-reaching changes provide the boost to investment and growth that its backers promise?

    ROBERT J. BARRO | How US Corporate Tax Reform Will Boost Growth

    JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS | Robert Barro's Tax Reform Advocacy: A Response

  3. Murdoch's Last Stand?

    Rupert Murdoch’s sale of 21st Century Fox’s entertainment assets to Disney for $66 billion may mark the end of the media mogul’s career, which will long be remembered for its corrosive effect on democratic discourse on both sides of the Atlantic. 

    From enabling the rise of Donald Trump to hacking the telephone of a murdered British schoolgirl, Murdoch’s media empire has staked its success on stoking populist rage.

  4. Bank of England Leon Neal/Getty Images

    The Dangerous Delusion of Price Stability

    Since the hyperinflation of the 1970s, which central banks were right to combat by whatever means necessary, maintaining positive but low inflation has become a monetary-policy obsession. But, because the world economy has changed dramatically since then, central bankers have started to miss the monetary-policy forest for the trees.

  5. Harvard’s Jeffrey Frankel Measures the GOP’s Tax Plan

    Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a former member of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers, outlines the five criteria he uses to judge the efficacy of tax reform efforts. And in his view, the US Republicans’ most recent offering fails miserably.

  6. A box containing viles of human embryonic Stem Cell cultures Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images

    The Holy Grail of Genetic Engineering

    CRISPR-Cas – a gene-editing technique that is far more precise and efficient than any that has come before it – is poised to change the world. But ensuring that those changes are positive – helping to fight tumors and mosquito-borne illnesses, for example – will require scientists to apply the utmost caution.

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now