Pedro Molina

La Colombie et la crise

BOGOTA – Il y a tout juste cinq mois, le gouvernement colombien garantissait à ses citoyens que la crise sévissant dans le monde ne les toucherait pas. Mais les économistes prévoient aujourd’hui une croissance d’à peine 1 % pour cette année, dans le meilleur des cas. Ces mornes prévisions marquent la fin du plus long cycle (trois décennies) de croissance en Colombie, laissant le pays dans la même situation précaire que tant d'autres économies en développement.

Bien sûr, l’économie de la Colombie n’est pas la seule à se dégrader. Depuis le courant de l’année dernière, le Fonds monétaire international a revu à la baisse ses estimations de croissance en Amérique latine. En octobre dernier, le Fonds annonçait que cette région atteindrait une croissance de 3,2 % cette année. Il avance désormais que la croissance sera à peine positive. Il semblerait de plus que le pire soit à venir : si l’administration Obama ne réussit pas à stabiliser l’économie des Etats-Unis dans les semaines qui suivent, l’Amérique latine sera confrontée à un déclin encore plus prononcé.

Pour ses habitants, la bonne nouvelle est que le statut de la Colombie est dans un meilleur état que celui de ses voisins. Même si l’estimation des chiffres concrets est un exercice stérile par les temps qui courent, la plupart des analystes prévoient que la performance économique de la Colombie en 2009 sera inférieure à celle du Pérou mais semblable à celle du Chili et du Brésil et meilleure que celle de l’Argentine, du Venezuela et du Mexique, pays qui devrait accuser une baisse de plus de 2 %.

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