Pedro Molina

哥伦比亚与国际危机

波哥大—仅仅在五个月前,哥伦比亚政府还向其国民保证他们没有受到国际危机的影响。而现在,分析家们却预言该国经济今年几乎连1%都增长不到。而这还是最坏的预测。这一暗淡的预测标志着哥伦比亚三十年以来最长的一个增长周期的结束,并陷入和许多其他发展中经济体一样脆弱的境地。

当然,经济恶化并非哥伦比亚一家。自从去年中期开始,国际货币基金组织就已经开始调低对整个拉美经济增长的预期。去年十月,该组织预测该地区今年的增长率会达到3.2%;现在,它却说很可能为负增长。而且最糟糕的情况也许还没有发生:如果奥巴马政府不能在未来几周成功地稳定美国经济,拉美很可能还会面临更为严峻的经济下滑局面。

对哥伦比亚而言,好消息是它的经济形势比邻国要好。虽然在如此令人忧心的形势下预测具体经济数据毫无意义,但大多数分析家都预测哥伦比亚今年的经济表现将不如秘鲁,而与智利和巴西相当,但要好于阿根廷、委内瑞拉和墨西哥。据预测墨西哥的经济规模将会萎缩2%以上。

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