مشكلة ديون الأسواق الناشئة الأكبر على الإطلاق تطل علينا من أميركا

Dec 20, 2018 Carmen M. Reinhart

كمبريدج ــ كان الموضوع المتكرر في الصحافة المالية خلال قسم كبير من عام 2018 هو المخاطر المتزايدة في فئة الأصول في الأسواق الناشئة. تتسم الاقتصادات الناشئة، بطبيعة الحال، بكونها مجموعة متنوعة للغاية. لكن العائدات على سنداتها السيادية ارتفعت بشكل ملحوظ، مع تضاؤل تدفقات رأس المال إلى هذه الأسواق في ظل تصور عام لظروف متدهورة.

تاريخيا، كانت هناك علاقة إيجابية محكمة بين أدوات دين الشركات الأميركية المرتفعة العائد وارتفاع العائد على ديون الأسواق الناشئة السيادية. الواقع أن ديون الشركات الأميركية ذات العائد المرتفع هي السوق الناشئة الموجودة داخل الاقتصاد الأميركي ذاته (ولنسمها ديون السوق الناشئة الأميركية). ولكن خلال هذا العام، تباعدت مساراتهما (انظر الشكل رقم 1). ومن الجدير بالذكر أن عائدات الشركات الأميركية فشلت في الارتفاع بالتزامن مع نظيراتها في الأسواق الناشئة.

(الشكل رقم 1)

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 12 Comments on this article

Elizabeth Pula Dec 26, 2018

Who's got the best interpretation of "capital outflows", does any body care? Should any body care? What's your rating on this one? What's your personal interpretation that you and your family would follow, based on any personal research, and conclusions based on any accessible facts?
http://mutualfunds.com/news/2018/12/25/mutual-fund-scorecard-annual-edition/

Here's an aside, Do remember 85% of all trading now is HFT. And just what are MF's and heck what are ETF's, for the hell of it, or the well of it? And just what is IT, them, there, these and those, any way?
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Elizabeth Pula Dec 26, 2018

Well golly gee, a couple of words"capital inflows" that could start probing some poo, from I don't who?
Capital inflows AND Capital OUTFLOWS. Now here is a real citizen and a real student that is probing the depths of a surface, that so many have been working so hard to keep covered.

"https://careeradvancement.uchicago.edu/sites/default/files/ucib-journal/filings-volume-and-volatility.pdf"

He may not have reached any real answers,
but with some real combined forces,
from a lot more just like him,
Maybe, just maybe,
there can be some real discussion somewhere
on earth referencing real facts
instead of a stinking mess of degradation,
leading a disgusting pile of more goo.

In other words, distraction of the masses presents real peril, not message distractors.
And, here's another nonsensical clue, just for you.

PROFIT, was caught running without any real ball,
and disappeared, no longer a line, to the amazement of all.

https://www.sec.gov/data

In other words, check out some stuff on the SEC website, scratch your head, instead of you know what, and get to work.

And who wants to even suggest that business filings should NOT be quarterly?

By 2020, every US citizen should be able to pull-up and reference STATE and FEDERAL DATA at least quarterly. The data should be CURRENT, not up to 4 years intestate and inaccessible. AND, every US citizen should be taught to read and interpret this type of data by the age of 11.

And just who-in-the-world is privatizing individual citizen property tax data for public educational revenues nation-wide?

Revenue streams have been damned and not by me, so it must be by people like you, or you-know-who!
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G DUFEY Dec 24, 2018

So, instead of the banks going bust, now hedge funds, pension funds and university endowments suffer if they price the underlying loans poorly? Are bank regulators better in assessing credit risk than investors? Something needs a little explanation.
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Douglas Leyendecker Dec 23, 2018

The most important questions isn't when or why this bubble will burst but how we got here in the first place. It all starts with BAD economic and social policies. Now we require more and more "money" to keep the wheels on. Bubble to bubble...this is where we are in the developed world today. When the reboot finally hits there won't be any cryptocurrency because there won't be any internet. This is what happens in a fiat currency system.
- MARCO TEAMNEURS Dec 23, 2018
  
  Certain deterministic outcome such as the one presented by Professor Carmen M. Reinhart fits with the Idols refereed by Francis Bacon in Novum Organum. We will be using financialization until it will be not relevant because something else had emerged or most of us de-merged. This time might be that we are on those moments where something relevant is moving under our feet.
  What seems to be making the difference is strength of soft/hard power the CCP (Communist Chinese Party) has to leverage decisions over the world. What happened when in the Subprime Crises Russia called China to together attack capital markets of USA and China refused (according to Mr. Henry Paulson) might have not the same reply this time.
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Paul Daley Dec 23, 2018

Good article. But -- do I dare say it -- this time may be different. As Reinhart points out, CLOs do not have heavily engaged public institutions, as was the case with mortgage backed securities and sovereign debt. A collapse in CLO prices would fall largely on private shoulders. And, after their first experiments with QE, central banks should have a better grip on the risks and consequences of asset price support programs in encouraging and sustaining asset price bubbles, and be prepared this time to employ income support measures to sustain real economic activity, if necessary.
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nigel southway Dec 22, 2018

The best course of action is stop the easy movement of capital across borders that way it stops the phoney wealth transactions caused by a foolish focus on the global economy start more national centered wealth funds
- Jacob Alhadeff Dec 24, 2018
  
  I don't think that the only option is to reduce international capital flows. In my mind we can promote the nation state by closing borders or we can promote a more equitable international playing field through international governance organizations. I prefer the global Federalist because it allows us to better tackle international problems.
  - nigel southway Dec 24, 2018
    
    The global controls are useless to trust any more it’s time for national controls
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Jacob Alhadeff Dec 20, 2018

I had no idea any of this was going on. This was very informative, but I don't know yet exactly what to do with this information. I'm cynical about our ability to avoid such bubbles, but we can prepare for them. In terms of how low/middle income Americans can prepare what would anyone suggest? Also, I'm not looking for advice on investing decisions
- nigel southway Dec 24, 2018
  
  We need to come to terms with who owns capital. It’s mostly the nation that created it. The capitalists should only rent it and the traders and globalists have zero rights to it hence the justification for stricter controls
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