Encuentros Cercanos con Recesiones del Tercer Tipo

PARIS: Existen tres tipos de recesiones. Las del primer tipo son las provocadas por sucesos graves, como una guerra o un aumento súbito y severo en el precio del petróleo. Recordemos que la crisis petrolera de la OPEP de los 1970 generó dos recesiones mundiales. En la segunda categoría se encuentran las recesiones que se dan al azar, como cuando la confianza del consumidor cae, o cuando las empresas se sienten inseguras y recortan sus inversiones o sus inventarios. Esta fue la causa de la recesión en los Estados Unidos durante la primera parte de los 1990.

El tercer tipo de recesión se da cuando los desequilibrios en una economía se acumulan hasta llegar a niveles insostenibles antes de estallar. Esta clase de recesión se caracteriza en ocasiones por aumentos considerables en la deuda (corporativa o de consumo) o por una alta especulación en los mercados accionarios o de capital que acaban por derrumbarse. El “estallido” de una de estas burbujas fue lo que sucedió en Japón hace 10 años, suceso del cual ese país no acaba de recuperarse.

Las recesiones del primer tipo son, casi por definición, muy impredecibles. Las del segundo tipo son de poca importancia y relativamente fáciles de reparar, si no es que de evitar. Lo que requieren usualmente es una reducción en las tasas de interés o medidas para reactivar la economía. Las recesiones del tercer tipo son las más preocupantes. ¿Se están enfrentando acaso los Estados Unidos a este tercer tipo de recesión?

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