Hautnahe Begegnungen mit Rezessionen der Dritten Art

PARIS: Es gibt drei Typen von Rezessionen. Zum ersten Typ gehören jene, die durch eine heftigen Schock verursacht werden, zum Beispiel durch den Ausbruch eines Krieges oder einen plötzlichen, starken Ölpreisanstieg. Es sei daran erinnert, dass der OPEC-Ölschock der 70er Jahre zu zwei Weltrezessionen führte. Rezessionen der zweiten Kategorie entstehen zufällig, beispielsweise wenn das Vertrauen der Konsumenten abnimmt oder wenn Unternehmen nervös werden und ihre Investitionen und/oder Lagerbestände einschränken. Dies war die Ursache für Amerikas Rezession in den frühen 90er Jahren.

Der dritte Typ von Rezessionen tritt ein, wenn Ungleichgewichte in einer Volkswirtschaft ein unhaltbares Ausmaß erreichen, bevor es zur Explosion kommt. Diese Rezessionsform zeichnet sich manchmal durch einen ungeheuren Schuldenzuwachs (Unternehmen oder Konsumenten) oder schwindelerregende Börsen- oder Kapitalanlagespekulationen aus, die schließlich zusammenbrechen. Das „Platzen“ einer solchen Anlageluftblase ist das, was vor zehn Jahren in Japan passierte, ein Ereignis, von dem sich das Land noch nicht erholt hat.

Rezessionen des ersten Typs sind, fast per definitionem, weitgehend unvorhersehbar. Jene des zweiten Typs sind unbedeutender und relativ einfach zu reparieren, wo sie nicht zu vermeiden sind. Alles, dessen sie normalerweise bedürfen, ist eine Verringerung der Zinssätze oder etwas Wirtschaftsbelebung durch Geldschöpfung. Rezessionen der dritten Art sind am beunruhigendsten. Sieht sich Amerika diesem dritten Typ von Rezession gegenüber?

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