Recortándole las alas del euro

El pedido del presidente francés Nicolas Sarkozy al Banco Central Europeo para que intervenga y frene la subida del euro comúnmente se ve como una señal de que Sarkozy ni entiende los mercados ni confía en ellos. De hecho, algunos hoy lo ven como un gaullista tradicional que quiere ayudar a los productores franceses devaluando artificialmente el euro.

Pero, ¿podría Sarkozy tener razón al creer que los mercados monetarios no impulsan automáticamente los tipos de cambio a niveles consistentes con los fundamentos del comercio internacional? Después de todo, los bienes comparables suelen venderse internacionalmente a precios muy diferentes. Por ejemplo, según The Economist , una hamburguesa Big Mac se vende en la zona del euro a unos tres euros –aproximadamente 4 dólares al tipo de cambio actual-, pero sólo a unos 3,20 dólares en Estados Unidos, lo que implica que el euro está sobrevaluado en alrededor del 25%.

A partir de las últimas tres décadas de monedas flotantes, resulta evidente que los tipos de cambio determinados por el mercado tienden a alejarse de manera amplia y persistente de los niveles de paridad que harían que los bienes comparables se vendieran a precios comparables en diferentes países. De manera que los políticos como Sarkozy pueden tener fundamentos para sostener que los bancos centrales deberían intervenir para limitar este tipo de oscilaciones.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now