Jak přistřihnout euru křídla

Volání francouzského prezidenta Nicolase Sarkozyho, aby Evropská centrální banka zasáhla a okleštila prudce rostoucí euro, je všeobecně pokládáno za známku jeho nepochopení trhů a nedůvěry k nim. Někteří lidé dnes dokonce Sarkozyho vnímají jako tradičního gaullistu, který chce pomoci francouzským výrobcům tím, že euro uměle devalvuje.

Nemohl by však mít Sarkozy pravdu, když se domnívá, že měnové trhy neženou automaticky směnné kurzy na úroveň odpovídající základům mezinárodního obchodu? Srovnatelné zboží se koneckonců často ve světě prodává za velmi rozdílné ceny. Podle časopisu Economist stojí například jeden Big Mac v eurozóně přibližně tři eura – což jsou při současném směnném kurzu zhruba čtyři dolary –, avšak ve Spojených státech se prodává za pouhé tři dolary dvacet centů, což naznačuje, že euro je asi o 25% nadhodnoceno.

Po posledních třiceti letech existence volně plovoucích měn je zřejmé, že trhem determinované směnné kurzy mají sklon k širokým a ustavičným výchylkám od paritní úrovně, při níž by se srovnatelné zboží prodávalo v různých zemích za srovnatelné ceny. Politici jako Sarkozy tak možná mají kus pravdy, když tvrdí, že by centrální banky měly zasáhnout a podobné výkyvy omezit.

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