剪断欧元的羽翼

法国总统萨尔科奇呼吁欧洲中央银行采取干预措施来抑制飞扬的欧元,这通常被视为他既不理解也不信任市场。确实,现在有人把萨尔科奇看作是传统戴高乐派人物。这些人想要通过人为地让欧元贬值来帮助法国的制造商。

但是,萨尔科奇相信货币市场并不自动地将汇率改变到与国际贸易基本面相符的水平之上,这会不会是有道理的呢?毕竟,在国际上可比产品销售的价格是不同的。例如,根据经济学人杂志报导,麦当劳巨无霸汉堡包在欧元区的售价是大约三欧元,根据目前的汇率大致为四美元,但是在美国只有大约3.2美元。这表明欧元价格高估大约25%。

从过去三十年货币浮动可以清除地看出,由市场决定的汇率趋向于长期大幅摇摆游离于让可比商品在不同国家以可比价格销售的同位水平。因此像萨尔科奇那样的政坛人物可能会有理由争辩说中央银行应当采取干预措施来限制这样的摇摆浮动。

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