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气候战争传说?

纽约—叙利亚内战前几年,这个国家经历了三次连续破纪录的旱灾。旱灾导致了国内流民,在很大程度上造成了社会紧张,并在2011年引发群众示威。但这并不意味着叙利亚冲突是一场“气候战争”。

随着集团天气事件的频发,气候变化和暴力冲突之间的关联也越来越清楚。在苏丹,前总统巴希尔所实施的种族清洗与撒哈拉沙漠南扩有关,沙漠的扩张加剧了粮食不安全,从而助长了社会动荡。南海领土纠纷也与粮食安全担忧有所关联,根源在于渔场入口的争夺。如今,有人警告埃及和埃塞俄比亚之间有可能爆发“酿造水战争”,原因是后者正在尼罗河上建造大坝。

但“气候战争”叙事有着严重缺陷。从叙利亚到苏丹,当今的冲突是多重复杂而相互关联的因素的结果,如种族-宗教紧张、长期政治压迫等。气候变化的影响可能加剧社会和政治动荡,但气候变化没有引起战争。这一细节非常重要,必须厘清责任:决不能用气候变化来推脱解决或避免暴力冲突的责任。

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