气候科学还是气候传教?

发自哥本哈根 —— 美国前总统小布什和英国前首相布莱尔这两位仁兄都已经深刻地领悟到,如果公众发现自己在某些潜在威胁的真相上受到了误导,那么后果就会很严重。在入侵伊拉克问题上,事后调查发现其中的动因都被极度夸大了 —— 某些甚至是捏造出来的 —— 于是民众为此爆发出来的愤怒和反抗在 2008 年把美国共和党赶下了台,而这一切也很可能在今年晚些时候在英国工党身上重演一遍。

而在气候变化问题上,全球舆论也发生了类似的转向。自从去年年底网络黑客公布了数千封来自英国某顶尖研究机构的电子邮件,揭露某些全球最具影响力的气象学家一直以来都在努力粉饰其在气候变化问题上的研究缺陷,阻挠审查,并合谋将自己这一派的气候变化观点强加于人之后,这一转向过程更呈现出加速的趋势。而美国权威咨询小组政府间气候变化专门委员会( IPCC )最近也陷入了十分尴尬的境地,因为该机构在 2007 年发布的一份影响重大的报告中的某些骇人听闻的预测也被揭露出是毫无科学依据的。

尽管这些谬误并未让我们质疑全球变暖确实正在发生,确实是人为所致,而且确实将带来很多麻烦,但这些对 IPCC 的质疑也造成了极大的损害。事实胜于雄辩,最近就有调查显示,公众对全球变暖的科学共识越来越不信任了。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/43qaUKd/zh;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now