气候科学还是气候传教?

发自哥本哈根 —— 美国前总统小布什和英国前首相布莱尔这两位仁兄都已经深刻地领悟到,如果公众发现自己在某些潜在威胁的真相上受到了误导,那么后果就会很严重。在入侵伊拉克问题上,事后调查发现其中的动因都被极度夸大了 —— 某些甚至是捏造出来的 —— 于是民众为此爆发出来的愤怒和反抗在 2008 年把美国共和党赶下了台,而这一切也很可能在今年晚些时候在英国工党身上重演一遍。

而在气候变化问题上,全球舆论也发生了类似的转向。自从去年年底网络黑客公布了数千封来自英国某顶尖研究机构的电子邮件,揭露某些全球最具影响力的气象学家一直以来都在努力粉饰其在气候变化问题上的研究缺陷,阻挠审查,并合谋将自己这一派的气候变化观点强加于人之后,这一转向过程更呈现出加速的趋势。而美国权威咨询小组政府间气候变化专门委员会( IPCC )最近也陷入了十分尴尬的境地,因为该机构在 2007 年发布的一份影响重大的报告中的某些骇人听闻的预测也被揭露出是毫无科学依据的。

尽管这些谬误并未让我们质疑全球变暖确实正在发生,确实是人为所致,而且确实将带来很多麻烦,但这些对 IPCC 的质疑也造成了极大的损害。事实胜于雄辩,最近就有调查显示,公众对全球变暖的科学共识越来越不信任了。

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