气候变化上的现实主义

发自纽约——《多么美妙的哥本哈根》,这首取自1952年音乐片《汉斯·克里斯丁·安德森》的流行歌曲在今年秋天或许将会被反复演奏无数次,因为全球各国领导人将于今年12月齐聚丹麦首都(9月时在纽约),一同面对气候变化所带来的挑战。但除非国际社会能在短时间内采取更为现实一点的思维方式,否则的话,即将在哥本哈根发生的一切就将跟“美妙”一词无关。

毫无意外,目前能够帮助促成一个全面性条约的共识少之又少,而没有这个条约,自然也谈不上能对世界气候有什么意义深远的影响。各国政府都不愿意牺牲眼前或者中期的经济增长来换取长期的环境效益。而在大多数发达国家都正在经历一场痛苦的经济衰退之时,这更是明摆着的事实。对于作为发达国家一员的美国来说,如果削减温室气体排放所导致的高额成本和税收意味着降低经济复苏的速度,那么政府当然也不会接受强加于其身上的大幅减排限额。

而发展中国家则更加反对这样的限制或“帽子”。有4亿印度人至今仍然用不上电;因此也别指望印度会停止增加电煤的使用量,因为这是为其1/3国民提供电能的最好方式。中国也很可能不会同意任何形式的减排“帽子”,因为大多数中国人还生活在相对较低的水平之中。但这样的姿态实际上等于将各国缔结一个全新气候条约的希望判了死刑——因为发达国家无疑将坚持把欠发达国家纳入为解决方案的一部分。

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