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El crecimiento en la nueva economía climática

MILÁN – Por mucho tiempo se ha considerado que las medidas para reducir las emisiones de dióxido de carbono y mitigar el cambio climático se oponen de manera fundamental al crecimiento económico. De hecho, a menudo se cita la fragilidad de la recuperación económica como una justificación para demorarlas. Pero un informe reciente, “La nueva economía climática: Mejor crecimiento, mejor clima”, realizado por la Comisión Global sobre Economía y Clima, refuta este razonamiento. El informe concluye que las iniciativas para contrarrestar el cambio climático, lejos de perjudicar el crecimiento económico, podrían impulsarlo de manera considerable, y relativamente pronto.

Cualquiera que haya estudiado el desempeño de la economía desde el comienzo de la crisis financiera de 2008 entiende que los daños a los balances (como el exceso de deuda y pasivos sin financiar y no generadores de deuda) pueden desacelerar el crecimiento, detenerlo abruptamente o hasta revertirlo. Y quienes estén familiarizados con el crecimiento en los países en desarrollo saben que la falta de inversión en capital humano, infraestructura, base tecnológica y conocimiento de la economía acaba por producir  balances que no pueden ser la base de un crecimiento sostenido.

El cambio climático no es demasiado distinto de estos patrones de crecimiento insostenibles o defectuosos. En esencia, también es un problema de hoja de balances, basado en la cantidad de CO2 en la atmósfera.

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