El cambio climático y la seguridad hídrica

Recientemente, el Panel Intergubernamental sobre el Cambio Climático hizo públicos datos alarmantes acerca de las consecuencias del calentamiento global en algunas de las regiones más pobres del mundo. Para el año 2100, se espera que en todo el mundo de mil a tres mil millones de personas sufran de escasez de agua. El calentamiento global aumentará la evaporación y reducirá de manera importante las lluvias -en hasta un 20% en el Oriente Próximo y el Norte de África- y para mediados de siglo probablemente la cantidad de agua en estas regiones se reduzca a la mitad por persona.

Esta repentina escasez de un elemento cuya importancia simbólica y espiritual sólo se compara con su centralidad para la vida humana causará tensiones y exacerbará los conflictos en todo el mundo. África, Oriente Próximo y Asia Central serán las primeras regiones en estar expuestas a esto. Sin embargo, las repercusiones serán globales.

No obstante, esta sombría perspectiva no es una excusa para la apatía ni para el pesimismo. Puede que los conflictos sean inevitable; las guerras no lo son. Nuestra capacidad de prevenir las “guerras por el agua” dependerán de nuestra capacidad colectiva de anticiparnos a las tensiones y encontrar soluciones técnicas e institucionales para manejar conflictos emergentes. La buena noticia es que estas soluciones existen y están demostrando su eficacia cada día.

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