Changement climatique et sécurité de l’eau

Le Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat (GIEC) a récemment publié des données alarmantes sur les conséquences du réchauffement de la planète dans certaines des régions les plus pauvres du monde. D’ici 2100, de un à trois milliards de personnes souffriront du manque d’eau. Le réchauffement de la planète augmentera l’évaporation et réduira sérieusement les précipitations, jusqu’à 20 % au Moyen-Orient et en Afrique du Nord, et la ration d’eau disponible par personne aura sans doute diminué de moitié d’ici au milieu du siècle dans ces régions.

Cette brusque raréfaction d’un élément dont l’importance symbolique et spirituelle correspond à son rôle central dans la vie humaine provoquera des tensions et exacerbera les conflits dans le monde entier. L’Afrique, le Moyen-Orient et l’Asie centrale seront les premiers touchés. Mais les répercussions seront mondiales.

Cette vision sinistre n’est ni une excuse à l’apathie, ni au pessimisme. Les conflits sont peut-être inévitables, mais les guerres ne le sont pas. Notre faculté à éviter les “guerres de l’eau” dépendra de notre capacité collective à anticiper les tensions, et à trouver les solutions techniques et institutionnelles pour gérer les conflits émergents. La bonne nouvelle est que de telles solutions existent, et qu’elles montrent leur efficacité tous les jours.

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