气候变化与用水安全

政府间气候变化问题小组近期发布了令人担忧的数据,该数据是关于全球变暖在世界一些最穷困地区所造成的后果。到2100年,世界范围内十亿至三十亿的人口将遭受水荒。全球变暖将加剧蒸发并且使降雨量严重减少,在中东和北非会达到百分之二十。这使得到世纪中期这些地区人均可用水量可能减半。

某种元素(其象征及精神的重要性与其对人类生活的中心一致)的突然缺乏,将造成过分的紧张并且将加剧世界范围内的冲突。非洲、中东及中亚将是首批发生冲突的地区。但是,其影响是世界性的。

然而这幅凄凉的画面既不是冷漠的借口,亦不是悲观的理由。冲突可能是不可避免的,但战争却不是。我们防止“水战争”的能力将取决于预见紧张局势、找到控制出现冲突的技术上及制度上的解决办法的集体能力。好消息是这种解决办法是存在的,并且每天都在证明其功效。

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