Jennifer Kohnke

L’histoire de deux traités

PRAGUE – La conférence climatique de Doha n’a été que le prolongement de vingt ans d’échec des négociations sur le changement climatique, depuis le premier Sommet de la Terre à Rio en 1992. A l’époque, les pays participants s’étaient engagés à réduire leurs émissions pour les ramener en 2000 à leur niveau de 1990 ; les résultats des pays de l’OCDE ont été de 9 pour cent inférieurs à l’objectif fixé. Le Protocole de Kyoto de 1998 a été un fiasco quasi complet. Et la conférence de Copenhague de 2009 qui devait sauver le monde a également été un échec retentissant.

Jusqu’à présent, les émissions de carbone ont continué à augmenter – à un rythme accéléré – avec des émissions qui en 2011 étaient de 50 pour cent supérieures à celles de 1990. Les vingt dernières années de négociations climatiques ont réduit cette augmentation de près de 1 pour cent seulement.

Si l’on suppose, de manière assez optimiste, que cette réduction sera maintenue au cours de ce siècle, elle limitera l’augmentation des températures de près d’une moitié d’un degré Celsius à l’horizon 2100. Le niveau des océans ne s’élèvera que d’un millimètre en moins. Même en cent ans, ces changements ne seront pas mesurables.

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