Exceso de confianza en las cámaras de compensación

CAMBRIDGE - Para reducir la probabilidad de que se repita una crisis financiera como la de 2007-2008, los organismos reguladores están ahora tratando de reforzar las instituciones para el largo plazo, al menos cuando pueden desviar su atención de crisis inmediatas como las de la deuda de Grecia, el límite de endeudamiento del gobierno de Estados Unidos y el potencial contagio en la eurozona desde la deuda soberana a la deuda bancaria. El centro de sus iniciativas ha sido reforzar las cámaras de compensación (clearinghouses) para derivados, los instrumentos que exacerbaron la implosión de AIG y otras entidades en la última crisis financiera. Sin embargo, una cámara de compensación no es una panacea y sus límites, aunque sea fácil no verlos, conllevan consecuencias de gran alcance.

Cuando una compañía trata de protegerse de las fluctuaciones monetarias, puede reducir su exposición a la moneda de destino con un derivado (por ejemplo, se compromete a pagar a su socio comercial si se eleva el euro, pero éste le paga si cae). Aunque la compañía que utiliza el derivado reduce su exposición al riesgo de una caída del euro, el derivado viene con uno nuevo: el riesgo de la contraparte. La compañía se arriesga a que, si el socio comercial quiebra (como ocurrió con AIG, Bear Stearns, Lehman), no se le pague si el euro cae.

Peor aún, como hemos visto en la crisis financiera, si muchas entidades financieras tienen muchos de estos contratos, un rumor de insolvencia puede inducir a todas las entidades de contraparte de derivados de una institución a exigir garantías o el pago de forma simultánea, generando una carrera que se asemeja a una corrida bancaria clásica, que luego se podría extender a otras firmas.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/bOacZY1/es;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now