Logic Cubes Sarah R/Flickr

利率迷局

发自巴塞尔——从今往后,美国政府可以以大概2.5%的利率进行十年期融资。在计入预期通胀之后,这意味着政府的实际贷款成本还不到0.5%。就在一年前,实际利率事实上还是负值。而随着低利率开始在发达国家成为主流,许多人担心一个长期萧条时期即将降临。

而低实际汇率带来的问题严重程度则取决于降低汇率的理由。目前流行的观点认为下行趋势在很大程度上反映了均衡或者“自然”利率的下跌,而这种下跌的原因来自储蓄和投资基本面的改变。换句话说,即便发达国家的疲软的增长预期以及不断增加的不确定性抑制了投资需求,但新兴市场国家的储蓄偏好,再加上投资者对安全资产的日渐偏爱,导致全球的储蓄供应有所增加。

 “自然”利率的下跌被视为经济复苏的一个关键障碍,因为名义利率不能低于0,所以这种下跌抑制了货币政策通过将实际利率压至均衡水平以下来供应足量刺激措施的能力。如何阻止均衡利率的下跌也因此成为了各界争论的要点。

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