Chiarezza sull’Austerità

MILANO – Ho appena avuto il privilegio di parlare alla principale conferenza annuale del Consiglio economico della Germania, il braccio economico e finanziario dell’Unione Democratica Cristiana, l’attuale partito di governo. Tra gli altri relatori erano presenti la Cancelliera Angela Merkel e il Ministro delle Finanze Wolfgang Schäuble. È stato un evento interessante –e cosa più importante, incoraggiante.

Sembrava chiaro che la Germania (o almeno questo insieme piuttosto ampio di rappresentanti del governo, del mondo imprenditoriale e dirigenti sindacali) confermi il proprio impegno verso l’euro e per il rafforzamento dell’integrazione europea, e che  riconosca la necessità per il successo di tali obiettivi della realizzazione di una ripartizione degli oneri a livello europeo, che consenta di superare la crisi in corso nella zona euro. Le riforme in Italia e Spagna sono a buona ragione considerate cruciali, e sembra che vi sia una profonda consapevolezza (sulla base dell’esperienza maturata in Germania negli ultimi dieci anni e mezzo dopo la riunificazione) che il ripristino della competitività, dell’occupazione e della crescita richiede tempo.

La Grecia non ha molte alternative, ma rimane l’esigenza di contenere un serio rischio di contagio per evitare che si abbandoni il percorso delle riforme fiscali orientato alla crescita intrapreso in Italia e Spagna . Di fronte ad un alto rischio sistemico, i capitali privati lasciano le banche e il mercato dei titoli sovrani, determinando il rialzo degli oneri finanziari statali e la caduta della capitalizzazione delle banche. Questo, a sua volta, minaccia il funzionamento del sistema finanziario e l’efficacia dei programmi di riforma.

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