Crónica de una crisis monetaria anunciada

CAMBRIDGE – La crisis en Grecia y los problemas de deuda de España y Portugal han expuesto las fallas inherentes del euro. Ni todas las garantías financieras –ni mucho menos la retórica tranquilizadora- de la Unión Europea las pueden ocultar. Después de once años de haber avanzado sin contratiempos desde la creación del euro, los problemas fundamentales del arreglo han quedado claramente de manifiesto.

El intento de crear una moneda común para 16 países independientes y muy diferentes estaba destinado a fracasar. La adopción de una moneda común significó que los países miembros individuales perdieron la posibilidad de controlar la política monetaria y las tasas de interés para reaccionar a las condiciones económicas nacionales. También significó que el tipo de cambio de cada país ya no podía responder a los efectos acumulativos de las diferencias en productividad y los patrones globales de demanda.

Además, la moneda común debilita las señales del mercado que normalmente advertirían a un país sobre el aumento excesivo de su déficit fiscal. Y cuando un país con un déficit fiscal excesivo necesita subir los impuestos y recortar el gasto público, como Grecia claramente hace ahora, la consiguiente contradicción entre el PIB y el empleo no puede reducirse con una devaluación que incrementa las exportaciones y reduce las importaciones.

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