L'Irak et la contagion de la guerre syrienne

DENVER – Pour comprendre que les guerres en Irak et en Syrie sont liées, il suffit de considérer le rôle de "l'Etat islamique en Irak et au Levant (EIIL)", le groupe armé proche d'Al-Qaïda dont les combattants en provenance de Syrie arrivent en nombre dans la province irakienne d'Anbar. Si l'on n'y accorde pas toute l'attention voulue, la situation en Irak et en Syrie pourrait transformer la carte du Moyen-Orient et susciter d'autres conflits dans les années qui viennent.

Ce qui se passe dans la province d'Anbar n'est rien de moins qu'un combat pour l'existence de l'Irak dans ses frontières actuelles. Les sunnites d'Irak s'inquiètent de leur avenir, mais la majorité chiite confrontée à la possibilité sans précédent de se retrouver pour la toute première fois à la tête d'un Etat arabe a elle aussi des raisons de s'inquiéter.

Même les paranoïaques ont des ennemis. Le Premier ministre irakien Nouri al-Maliki devrait consacrer davantage d'efforts à négocier et à rechercher un compromis avec la communauté sunnite qu'à réprimer ses dirigeants et ses militants. Il est néanmoins confronté à la tâche immense de consolider un Etat dirigé par des chiites, et qui ne dispose d'aucun allié naturel dans le monde arabe. Et la communauté sunnite, prise en sandwich entre d'un coté Al-Qaïda et de l'autre l'Etat chiite, n'a eu à aucun moment intérêt à aider Maliki à stabiliser l'Irak dans sa nouvelle configuration politique.

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