¿Valores chinos?

BERLÍN – Actualmente no cabe la menor duda de que la República Popular de China tendrá una posición preponderante en el mundo del siglo XXI. El rápido crecimiento, el potencial estratégico, el enorme mercado interior y las inmensas inversiones en infraestructuras, educación e investigación e innovación de este país, además de su acumulación de capacidad militar en gran escala, contribuirán a ello. Eso significa que, desde el punto de vista económico y político, estamos entrando en un siglo del Asia oriental y sudoriental.

Para que no se olvide, hemos de decir que el resultado para el mundo habría sido mucho peor, si el ascenso de China hubiera fracasado, pero, ¿cómo será ese mundo? Podemos prever el poder que modelará su geopolítica, pero, ¿qué valores subyacerán a su ejercicio de dicho poder?

La política oficial de “Cuatro modernizaciones” (industrial, agrícola, militar y científico-tecnológica) que ha sostenido el ascenso de China desde finales del decenio de 1970 no ha dado una respuesta a esa pregunta, porque la “quinta modernización” –el surgimiento de la democracia y del Estado de derecho– sigue sin hacerse realidad. De hecho, la modernización política afronta una oposición en masa del Partido Comunista chino, que no está interesado en abandonar su monopolio del poder. Además, la transición a un sistema pluralista que canalice, en lugar de reprimir, el conflicto político sería en verdad peligrosa, si bien el riesgo aumentará cuanto más persista el gobierno de un solo partido (y la corrupción endémica que lo acompaña).

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