Des valeurs chinoises ?

BERLIN – Il n’y a pas l’ombre d’un doute raisonnable aujourd’hui que la République populaire de Chine dominera le monde du vingt-et-unième siècle. La croissance économique rapide et le potentiel stratégique du pays, son gigantesque marché domestique et ses énormes investissements en infrastructures, en éducation, et en recherche et développement, ainsi que le renforcement massif de son appareil militaire rendent la chose inéluctable. Sur les plans politique et économique, cela veut forcément dire que nous entrons dans le siècle de l’Asie de l’Est et du Sud-Est.

N’oublions pas que le sort du monde aurait pu être pire si l’ascension de la Chine s’était enrayée. Mais de quoi l’avenir est-il fait ? Nous pouvons prévoir les forces qui façonneront sa géopolitique, mais quelles sont les valeurs qui sous-tendront l’exercice de ce pouvoir ?

La politique officielle des « quatre modernisations » (industrielle, agricole, militaire, scientifique et technologique) sur lesquelles l’ascension de la Chine s’est fondée à la fin des années 1970 n’a pu répondre à cette question, car la « cinquième modernisation », soit l’avènement de la démocratie et de l’état de droit, est encore attendue. En effet, ce dernier volet de la politique de modernisation rencontre une vaste opposition du Parti communiste chinois, qui n’a aucun intérêt à céder le monopole du pouvoir. De plus, la transition vers un système pluraliste qui canaliserait les tensions politiques, au lieu de les réprimer serait éminemment risquée, même si ce risque grandit à mesure que perdurent le régime de parti unique et la corruption endémique qui l’accompagne.

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