中国价值观?

发自柏林——如今我们已经没有什么理由去怀疑中华人民共和国会在21世纪主导整个世界。该国高速的经济增长,战略潜力,庞大的国内市场以及对基础设施,教育和科研的巨额投资,还有大规模军备建设都证明了这一判断。这意味着,在政治和经济意义上,我们正在进入一个东亚和东南亚的世纪。

必须认识到的是,如果没有中国的成功崛起,这个世界肯定是一番更糟糕的景象。但如今这个世界又将是何种状况?可以预期这股势力将塑造自己的地缘政治格局,但在这些行为背后又会是一种什么样的价值观在支撑着一切?

自1970年代以来一直为中国崛起打下基础的“四个现代化”(工业、农业,军事和科学技术)政策并不能为此提供答案,因为“第五个现代化”——民主的崛起以及法治——依然处于缺失状态。事实上,政治现代化进程遭到了中国共产党的极力反对,因为他们根本没兴趣放弃自身对权力的独家垄断。此外,向一个疏导(而非压制)政治冲突的多党制体系的转型也充满风险,即便该风险必将随着一党制统治(以及相伴而生的地方性腐败)的继续延续而不断增大。

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