Great Wall of China

La muraille économique de Chine

WASHINGTON, DC – La dépréciation récente de la monnaie chinoise, le renminbi, qui a agité les marchés boursiers chinois et conduit le gouvernement à suspendre les transactions à deux reprises la semaine dernière, met en évidence un défi majeur pour le pays : comment équilibrer ses obligations économiques nationales et internationales. L'approche décidée par les autorités aura un impact majeur sur le bien-être de l'économie mondiale.

La crise financière mondiale de 2008, conjuguée à la reprise décevante dans les économies avancées par la suite, a ajouté une nouvelle urgence aux efforts de la Chine pour changer son modèle de croissance basé sur l'investissement et la demande extérieure en un modèle tiré par la consommation intérieure. Réussir une telle transition structurelle sans provoquer de forte baisse de croissance économique serait difficile pour tout pays. Le défi est encore plus grand pour un pays aussi vaste et complexe que la Chine, en particulier compte tenu de l'environnement actuel de croissance mondiale atone.

Pendant des années, le gouvernement chinois a cherché à élargir la détention d’actions cotées en bourse, fournissant ainsi à plus de citoyens chinois un intérêt dans une transition réussie vers une économie de marché. Mais, comme lors de l'effort des États-Unis pour étendre la propriété immobilière dans les années précédant la crise de 2008, les politiques chinoises sont allés trop loin, créant une situation financièrement insoutenable qui impliquait la possibilité de baisses importantes des prix et de bouleversements.

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