Финансовые шлюзы Китая

НЬЮ-ЙОРК – По мере замедления темпов развития экономики Китая, после нескольких десятилетий впечатляющего роста, правительство все больше заманивается сладкозвучной песней необходимости либерализации движения капитала. Этот курс с первого взгляда кажется привлекательным, особенно если принять во внимание желание правительства Китая сделать женьминьби (юань) международной валютой. Но эта видимость может быть обманчивой.

Новый отчет показывает, что руководители Китая должны скептически относиться к либерализации движения капитала. Учитывая результаты недавних опытов других стран с развивающейся экономикой, в этом отчете Китаю предлагается принять тщательно продуманный временной график изменений и осторожного подхода к открытию его экономики капризам мирового движения капиталов.

Общая тенденция, которая была обнаружена в последние годы в странах с развивающейся экономикой – начиная со стран Латинской Америки, далее в странах Азии, Центральной и Восточной Европы – это то, что движение капиталов носит строго циклический характер, и это основная причина потери финансовой устойчивости. Либерализация движения капитала, так же как и недостаточность контроля над деятельностью небанковских финансовых посредников приводит к финансовой неустойчивости внутри страны. С последней проблемой сталкивается сегодня Китай, поскольку доля участия теневого банковского сектора в кредитовании становится все более заметной.

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