中国的金融防洪闸

发自纽约——在经历了数十年波澜壮阔的增长后,中国经济的增速开始下降,而这也令其政府日渐处于资本账户自由化的诱惑之下。考虑到中国政府实现人民币国际化的意愿,这一选项或许咋一看上去极为诱人。但这却是容易让人误入歧途的表象。

一份新发表的报告认为中国政府可能会对资本账户自由化持怀疑态度。通过借鉴其他新兴国家的最新经验,该报告认为中国在将自身经济暴露在全球资本洪流之前,应当采取一个周密部署且谨慎小心的步骤。

而新兴经济体近来最常出现的情况——从拉美开始再延续到东亚和中东欧地区——就是资本流动会大幅强化经济周期,同时也是引发金融不稳定状况的最大单一因素。而与自由化相关联的国内金融不稳定状况也会对国家经济表现产生重大影响,正如对非银行金融中介机构缺乏监管所导致的那样——随着中国影子银行部门对信贷增长的不断助推,这个问题也变得日益凸显。

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