United States 20-dollar bill. lincolnblues/Flickr

Die chinesische Wirtschaft und die Politik der Fed

CAMBRIDGE – Janet Yellens Rede an der Universität von Massachusetts vom 24. September hat klar gezeigt, dass sie und die Mehrheit des Offenmarktausschusses der Federal Reserve planen, Ende 2015 die kurzfristigen Zinsen zu erhöhen. Wichtig war insbesondere, dass sie explizit auch ihre eigene Sichtweise mit einbezogen hat, was bei ihrer Rede im Namen des gesamten Offenmarktausschusses nach seinem Treffen im September nicht der Fall war. Trotzdem aber hegen die Märkte angesichts der jüngsten Tendenz der Fed, ihre Politik zu ändern, weiterhin Zweifel, ob die Zinsen dann auch tatsächlich erhöht werden.

Seit einigen Monaten gibt die Fed nun schon bekannt, die Leitzinsen dann zu erhöhen, wenn sich der Arbeitsmarkt in Richtung Vollbeschäftigung entwickelt und die Mitglieder des Offenmarktausschusses eine jährliche Inflationsrate von 2% erwarten. Aber obwohl Anfang September beide Bedingungen erfüllt waren, entschied der Ausschuss, die Zinsen unverändert zu lassen. Als Grund wurde die Sorge über die Weltwirtschaft und insbesondere die Ereignisse in China angegeben.

Dies hat mich nicht überzeugt. Seit einigen Monaten bin ich bereits der Ansicht, die Fed sollte ihre Geldpolitik straffen, um die Risiken finanzieller Instabilität zu verringern – Risiken, die durch das Verhalten von Investoren und Kreditgebern aufgrund der längeren Periode außergewöhnlich niedriger Zinsen nach der Finanzkrise von 2008 verursacht wurden. Die Ereignisse in China sind kein Grund für eine weitere Verzögerung.

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