United States 20-dollar bill. lincolnblues/Flickr

中国经济和美联储政策

美国剑桥—9月24日耶伦在马萨诸塞州大学发表的讲话清楚地表明,她和美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)大部分成员倾向于在2015年底提高短期利率。尤其重要的是,她明确包括了她自己的观点,这与她在FOMC9月会议后代表全体成员的讲话不同。尽管如此,由于美联储最近频繁修正其政策立场,市场对今年会否升息仍抱怀疑态度。

几个月来,美联储一直在说,它将在劳动力市场趋于充分就业、FOMC成员能够确定年通货膨胀达到2%时升高联邦基金利率。但是,尽管这两个条件在9月初都已实现,FOMC仍决定保持利率不变,给出的解释是其担忧全球经济环境,特别是中国的情况。

我对此不敢苟同。几个月来,我认为美联储应该开始收紧货币政策,以降低投资者和贷款人的行为导致金融不稳定的风险。投资者和贷款人的高风险行为是对2008年金融危机以来长时间超低利率的反应。中国的情况不是进一步延迟升息的理由。

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