Paul Lachine

中国经济最后一次软着陆?

发自纽黑文市——中国又一次藐视了它的反对者们。其经济增长在2012年最后一个季度提速至7.9%——比第三季度7.4%的GDP增长速度高出半个百分点。在经历了连续十个季度的减速后,这次提速意义非凡,它标志着中国经济在略短于4年的时间内第二次实现了软着陆。

尽管有很多关于中国将来会转向内需导向的说法,中国现在依然严重依赖出口和外部需求——这是其经济增长的主要动力。中国最近两次经济减速都紧随其最大的两个国外市场——欧洲和美国——的经济衰退之后,这可并不是巧合。就像2009年初的软着陆发生在美国引发的可怕危机后那样,最近一次的软着陆则紧跟在欧洲主权债务危机之后。

中国有几个力量来源,使其能够在过去四年里承受艰难的外部冲击。大量储蓄(GDP的53%)所构成的缓冲区以及外汇储备(3.3万亿美元)是其最重要的力量来源。此外,不像西方国家已经用光了大部分的传统逆周期政策,如果形势需要,中国还保持着财政及货币政策调整的巨大空间。同样地,强大的城市化动力继续为中国的高投资经济提供坚固的支持,同时让相对贫穷的农民工能够通过在城市找到收入更高的工作来增加自身的收入。

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