Neexistující problém čínské měnové manipulace

CAMBRIDGE – Dvě americké politické strany se mezi sebou zřídka kdy shodnou, co je ale spojuje je vztek na „manipulaci s měnou“ a to zejména ta čínská. Demokraté a Republikáni v Kongresu, možná díky nedávnému zhodnocení dolaru a prvním signálům, že je tak narušován čistý export, znovu zvažují legislativní opatření proti tomu, co sami vidí jako neférové podhodnocení měny. Navrhovaná opatření zahrnují vyrovnávací povinnost proti dovozu z problematických zemí, i když by se jednalo o rozpor s mezinárodními obchodními pravidly.

Je to špatný přístup. I když akceptujeme, že je možné identifikovat manipulaci s měnou, tak Čína už pro tuto identifikaci podmínky nesplňuje. Pokud by Čína dovolila renminbi (juanu) volně plout a to bez intervence, tak by bylo, s ohledem na poslední podmínky, pravděpodobnější znehodnocení vzhledem k dolaru, spíše než posílení a pro americké producenty by bylo těžší konkurovat na mezinárodních trzích.

Je zde ale mnohem zásadnější problém: z ekonomického úhlu pohledu jsou manipulace či neférové podhodnocování měny koncepčně mimořádně těžko postřehnutelné. Nepatrné zhodnocení renminbi vzhledem k dolaru v roce 2014 toho není důkazem; mnoho dalších měn, jako například yen a euro, oslabily minulý rok mnohem více. Výsledkem je, že celková hodnota renminbi byla ve skutečnosti v průměru nepatrně vyšší.

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