中国货币操纵不是问题

美国剑桥—美国两大政党很少形成一致,但有一件事让它们团结起来——那就是对“货币操纵”,尤其是中国的货币操纵的愤怒。也许是受最近美元升值及其影响净出口的首批信号的刺激,国会中的民主党和共和党正在再次考虑采取立法对付它们眼中的不公平货币贬值。计划措施包括针对贬值国的惩罚性关税,即使这可能违反国际贸易规则。

这是错误的方针。即使你认为可以识别货币操纵,中国也不符合标准。在现有条件下,如果中国允许人民币自由浮动而不加干预,人民币兑美元贬值的可能性更大,美国生产者将更加难以在国际市场上竞争。

但还有一个更加基本的问题:从经济学角度讲,货币操纵或不公平贬值的概念很难界定。2014年人民币兑美元的略微贬值并非货币操纵的证据;其他许多货币——最值得关注的包括日元和欧元——去年贬值幅度大得多。因此,平均而言人民币总体价值实际略有上升

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