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Economics

中国的促增长空谈

Jan 24, 2023 Minxin Pei

发自加州克莱蒙特——中国政府似乎已经重新爱上了经济增长。在仓促退出新冠清零政策致使（至少）数万人丧命后，该国领导人一直忙于宣称自己会奋力实现强劲经济复苏。但嘴上的空谈没法给中国带来任何好处。

上个月的中央经济工作会议——中国共产党最高领导层制定下一年经济政策议程的年度会议——将增长确定为2023年的政府首要经济任务。随后几周民众看到了多年未见的景象，省级官员们大力响应中共的增长承诺并忐忑不安的私人投资者和企业家。

这一转变的政治动机是显而易见的：随着民众对严厉新冠清零政策的失望被失败退出政策的不满所取代，中共希望重新获取人民的支持。但除非政府能将其促增长言辞转化为切实行动，否则这就没有什么意义。

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Edward H.C Graydon Jan 30, 2023

To try and argue or contemplate brain storming possible weaknesses in China or more specifically the current leader remember that no amount of wishful thinking will ever bring back manufacturing to North America. China because it has been designated the worlds manufacturing headquarters based on conditions that simulate slave labour it has caused huge environmental conditions that seem almost apocalyptic as when you cannot drink the water and the soot and dust from manufacturing fill the air while North Americans fight to try and save wet lands ,forests ,wildlife and water while belittling China behind its back for the position and environment it is in ,I personally don’t believe China is going backwards and that economic growth within China moving forward is an absolute as they have cornered the market and are accepting of the negative environmental side effects of capitalism.
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j. von Hettlingen Jan 29, 2023

Xi Jinping's obsession with total control has weakened the economic foundations on which China’s strength relied to become a global power. Since securing an unprecedented third term last October he put security before economic growth, surrounding himself with loyalists.

As growth for 2022 will not hit the target of around 5.5%, Xi is eager to focus on the economy again. The truth is that China’s decades-long impressive growth is over. It had over the past 10-15 years relied too heavily on construction and investment to reach its ambitious annual targets. Billions were spent on building the world's largest network of high-speed railways, most of the world's 10 longest bridges, the world's busiest ports and airports, and high-rises for tens of million people that become empty. As a result of eye-watering debt levels, resources are drying up and a slowdown is inevitable.

For long Xi was convinced that his zero-Covid approach was the right policy. Instead it had turned a health crisis into an economic one: Growth at historic lows, record-high youth unemployment, a property crisis and sky-rocketing debts etc. He is still hellbent on overtaking the US as the world’s largest economy. In order to sustain high growth, a “credible reform” agenda is necessary. The question is whether he will rethink the economic model that had worked for decades.

In 1978 Deng Xiaoping, China forged economic reforms, allowing more private enterprise and ownership, opening the economy to foreign trade and investment and encouraging savings, after decades of state ownership and central planning under Mao Zedong that left China poor and undeveloped, with only basic manufacturing and dire infrastructure.

The author says Xi has in recent years embraced “orthodox communist ideology and sought to increase the Party’s dominance over society and the economy.” While asserting “tighter social control,” the Communist Party makes inroads into private firms and demands a role to play. The crackdown on tech and other industries has killed the entrepreneurial drive that made China a tech power, destroying jobs that used to attract its bright and innovative people.

On the global stage, geopolitical tensions as a result of Xi’s ambition to invade Taiwan and provocations against China’s most important trading partners have damaged business confidence. Rising interest rates and raw material costs have an impact on Chinese exports at a moment when Beijing is losing its place as the world’s centre of supply chains, since foreign companies look for manufacturing hubs elsewhere.
- Edward H.C Graydon Mar 16, 2023
  
  In 1978 Deng Xiaoping, China forged economic reforms, allowing more private enterprise and ownership, opening the economy to foreign trade and investment on the backs of those Chinese that where basically condoned to slave labour while living in an environmental wasteland that was key to helping facilitate maximum profits for those corporations that decided to participate in a system of basic human enslavement.
  
  China was raped by the western world that decided to turn the cheek to what was going on in as far as working conditions . Let's get real! China was seriously damaged by the environmental side of ignorant capitalists that put money over human well being and that my friend is where the biggest issue resides. While the leaders of China well before Xi condoned their countrymen to live in abject poverty. And because of this the idea that the world might be able to decouple from China is a fantasy in my opinion,I don’t think it will ever happen as greed is a killer and money corrupts .As while I read your post thousands of Chinese ocean tankers are filling ports around the world with goods produced on the backs of humans condoned by all involved into basic human slavery.
  
  If the world wants to decouple stop talking on a ideological level and start sending it back
  
  ."Actions speak louder than words"
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中国的促增长空谈

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