Alibaba auto vending machine starts in Guangzhou

الخطوة التالية في السياسة الاقتصادية الصينية

Apr 23, 2018 Martin Feldstein

كمبريدج ــ أنا من أشد المعجبين بالصين وقدرتها على تعديل سياساتها الاقتصادية للحفاظ على النمو السريع. ولكن الآن بعد أن صعدت الصين إلى قمة الاقتصاد العالمي، يتعين عليها أن تتبنى الإصلاحات الضرورية لكي تصبح متوافقة تماما مع القواعد الدولية التي قبلتها عند انضمامها إلى منظمة التجارة العالمية في عام 2001.

عندما ذهبت إلى الصين في عام 1982، كانت دولة فقيرة للغاية يحكمها نظام شيوعي تماما. فكانت الزراعة جماعية بالكامل. ولأن الفلاحين خسروا في ذلك الوقت الحق في زراعة أراضيهم، كان الإنتاج الزراعي منخفضا للغاية. وبعيدا عن الزراعة، كانت الملكية الفردية لوسائل الإنتاج محظورة قانونا. وكان بوسع الأسرة الصينية أن تمتلك ماكينة خياطة لاستخدامها الخاص، ولكن لم يكن من المسموح لها أن تمتلك أكثر من ماكينة خياطة واحدة أو تستأجر جارا للمساعدة في إنتاج الملابس.

وتحت قيادة دينج شياو بنج، بدأ هذا يتغير. فبدأت إعادة قطع من الأراضي إلى مالكيها السابقين، الذين سُمِح لهم بالاحتفاظ بأي إنتاج يتجاوز الحصة الإلزامية التي تحددها الحكومة. ونتيجة لهذا، ارتفع الناتج الزراعي إلى عنان السماء، وأنتج المزارعون مجموعة من المحاصيل الإضافية، مثل الزهور والخضراوات، لبيعها بشكل مباشر للجمهور. وتدريجيا، جرى تخفيف القيود المفروضة على ملكية الأصول المنتجة واستئجار العمال، حتى أصبح القطاع الخاص الآن يمثل غالبية النشاط الاقتصادي في الصين.

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Martin Feldstein

Writing for PS since 2008
129 Commentaries

Martin Feldstein was Professor of Economics at Harvard University and President Emeritus of the National Bureau of Economic Research. He chaired President Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1982 to 1984. In 2006, he was appointed to President Bush's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board, and, in 2009, was appointed to President Obama's Economic Recovery Advisory Board. He was also on the board of directors of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Trilateral Commission, and the Group of 30, a non-profit, international body that seeks greater understanding of global economic issues.

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About Face Jul 17, 2018

"Xi said that China will no longer require such joint ventures in the auto industry – an implicit admission that the requirement is a violation of the WTO rule" - Warren Buffet investment in electric vehicle company in China BYD, where did the technology transfer come from?
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Mauricio Duran-Loriga Jul 12, 2018

WTO was created after Bretton Woods conference in order to protect US multinationals interests worldwide, as one of the cornerstones for dollar dominance (together with the IMF and the World Bank). China is a trojan horse within WTO and the IMF, that will destroy such organizations from within in order to kill the reserve status of the dollar.

BUT... it is Germany that will be first caught between these two fires, and the Euro will endure extreme pressure, for the benefit of China (trade) and the US (extended dollar dominance).

China will make a killing by the next European recession. A huge short squeeze on the Eurodollar financing will break the Euroland banking system, and the ECB, unbacked by any Treasury, will be unable to stop the shredding of the Euro.

When the artificial dollar demand of the Euroland banks will be declared dead, the dollar will have lost its greatest source of strength, and a panicky Fed will play hardball.

The US will orchestrate another once in a generation devaluation of the US dollar, as it did in the early 1970's through the oil shock. Through buying gold this time. All sub-dollar currencies will collapse in full, and the US dollar will be bid even as it "loses" value (measured in gold terms).

China saw that coming a decade ago, and has been buying commodities like there is no tomorrow. The day the Fed devalues the dollar by buying gold, China has a captive market of 1,5 billion customers, with no Western demographic time bomb in sight. It just needs the commodities to satisfy their needs. Russia will redirect its European sales of commodities to China, overnight.

When this 1,5 billion Chinese reach Western life style status, no amount of gold purchases and/or military spending will save the dollar from the gallows.
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Elizabeth Pula Jun 26, 2018

The underlying problem for both China and US is what happens then to National Security? China was restrictive for national safety. US hasn't been. So now the US is probably under-threat because of NOT having had restrictions, and allowed real theft of intellectual property that may affect future national security of all citizens in the US.

Advanced computer/algorithms eventually accomplish same tasks, regardless of language, due to basic mathematic principles.

Perhaps, political principles can be re-examined for positive rather than negative results. However, historically, that's wishful thinking.

Who has the right to what on what land and within what boundaries?
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Elizabeth Pula Jun 26, 2018

And China is right. The US businesses do not have to do business in China, shouldn't be, and shouldn't have. The problem is the personal greed of US corporate leadership.
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Elizabeth Pula Jun 26, 2018

And that is why the US is failing. What occurred in the US since the early 1980's and forward? The problems in the US are not because of China.
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Longhwa Lee May 3, 2018

This comment was removed by a moderator. Replies to this comment may also be deleted. Please note that we moderate comments to ensure the conversation remains topically relevant. We appreciate well-informed comments and welcome your criticism and insight. Please be civil and avoid name-calling and ad hominem remarks.
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Krzysztof Worytkiewicz Apr 24, 2018

Quite interesting that people like Mr.Feldstein are still patronizing China. They seem not to have realized something important: the time of the US calling the shots is counted if not over. No great loss.
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Ariel Tejera Apr 23, 2018

Or ... China may quietly wait for America to make up its mind on what kind of global trade it wants, and what rules will be discarded or maintained.
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M M Apr 23, 2018

If only one could bring back these "good old days"!. The Chinese establishment, like other establishments of the G8 countries have missed golden opportunities to bring peace and prosperity to all, but NO, greed and prejudices had to prevail. The Chinese must retract their expansionist plans (to include the Road and Belt plan) and if they are truly and sincerely serious about fair trade they must invest through locally managed and run companies, they should return equities to vulnerable governments and not to invest through their own run and controlled conglomerates but through direct investments. They should also relinquish any control of any infrastructure or IP project (albeit ports, airports, energy, etc.) that would constitute a national security threat to other countries.
- Godfree Roberts Apr 23, 2018
  
  "But in their eagerness to catch up to the West, China has also stolen technology from Western companies."
  
  Nonsense. About 1% of China's IP is of doubtful provenance, extremely low for a nation in takeoff mode and evident if you examine the number and seriousness of TRIPS and domestic IP cases brought in the US and China in the past 25 years.
  
  In any case, with a few notable exceptions, that horse has left the barn long ago. According to the Japan Science and Technology Agency, China now ranks as the most influential country in four of eight core scientific fields, tying with the U.S. The agency took the top 10% of the most referenced studies in each field, and determined the number of authors who were affiliated with the U.S., the U.K., Germany, France, China or Japan. China ranked first in computer science, mathematics, materials science and engineering. The U.S., on the other hand, led the way in physics, environmental and earth sciences, basic life science and clinical medicine. China is also rapidly catching up in physics, where the U.S. has long dominated. It is spending more than $6 billion to build the world's largest particle accelerator, which could put it at the forefront of particle physics. https://tinyurl.com/ydeqeqnb.
  
  China also leads the world in all fields of civil engineering, Manufacturing, Supercomputing, Speech Recognition, Graphenics, Thorium power, Pebble Bed Reactors, Genomics, Thermal Power generation, Quantum Communication Networks, ASW Missiles, In-orbit Satellite Refueling, Passive Array Radar, Metamaterials, Hyperspectral Imaging, Nanotechnology, UHV Electricity transmission, Electric Vehicles, High Speed Rail, Sustainable Energy, Radiotelescopy, All fields of Sustainable Energy Research and Manufacturing, Hypersonic Space Weapons, Satellite Quantum Communications and quantum secure direct communications. “Approximately 72% of the academic patent families published in QIT since 2012 have been from Chinese universities. US universities are a distant second with 12%.” Patintformatics.
  - Elizabeth Pula Jun 26, 2018
    
    Lack of real development of education, and research in the US has its effects after close to 50 years. It's a shame. The only common denominator in the US is the English language, and that's really slipping away too.
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